Brazilian coffee seasonality and market data

We work in Brazil, and we do not sell coffee. No number here is rounded to make a trade look better than it is, and where the sources disagree, both are shown rather than blended.

The short answer

Brazil's coffee year runs July to June. The harvest sits inside it: conilon starts around April, arabica from about May, and both wind down by September. So new-crop coffee builds through the second half of the calendar year, after the harvest, and a lot claiming to be current crop can be checked against that calendar.

The two species behave differently and grow in different places. Arabica is the larger share and comes mainly from Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Conilon, Brazil's name for robusta, comes mainly from Espírito Santo and Rondônia. Origin and species are linked, which is why an offer that pairs the wrong one is worth checking.

On volumes, the honest position is that there is no single "Brazil produces X" number, because CECAFÉ, CONAB and USDA measure different things over different periods. CECAFÉ reported exports of 38.462 million bags for the 2025/26 season. CONAB and USDA report production on different bases, and the figures are set out separately below rather than averaged into one.

The coffee year and the harvest windows

Brazil's marketing year for coffee, the crop year, runs from July to June. USDA counts MY2026/27 as July 2026 through June 2027. That is the frame the trade uses, and it is why a "2026/27 crop" means the coffee harvested in the 2026 season and marketed across that July-to-June window, not a calendar year.

The harvest falls inside the coffee year and differs by species. Give the dates as ranges, because the start depends on the state, the altitude and the weather of the particular year.

Crop	Harvest window	Note
Conilon, robusta	From around April	Starts earlier than arabica, finishing by about September
Arabica	From around May	In MY2026/27 the harvest gained pace from mid-May, finishing by about September

New-crop coffee moves toward shipment through the second half of the calendar year, once the May-to-September harvest is in. That is a reading of the confirmed windows and the July-to-June marketing year, not a separate month-by-month schedule from a primary source, and the commercial harvest calendars that give exact arrival months are an illustration of the trade, not a source to cite.

One more timing fact shapes availability and price: arabica runs on a two-year, or biennial, cycle, where a high-yield "on" year alternates with a lower "off" year. USDA describes MY2026/27 as an "on" year, and a record one, helped by a favourable point in that cycle and by the weather.

Arabica and conilon, and where each grows

Brazil grows two coffee species, and the official classification separates them as Categoria I, Coffea arabica, and Categoria II, Coffea canephora, the robusta or conilon type. Conilon is the Brazilian trade name for Coffea canephora of Brazilian selection, the same species as robusta, which is why USDA and CONAB count them together as robusta and conilon.

Origin and species track each other closely, and that link is a check in itself. The regional map below comes from USDA's forecast, so the volumes are a projection for MY2025/26 rather than settled results, but the region-to-species pairing is stable.

State	Species	Note (volumes are USDA forecast for MY2025/26, not final results)
Minas Gerais	Arabica	The largest producer, mostly arabica, around 28.4 million bags forecast
Espírito Santo	Conilon	Over 95 percent of the state's output is conilon, around 21.5 million bags, roughly 70 percent irrigated
São Paulo	Arabica only	Around 5.2 million bags
Bahia	Mixed	Both arabica and robusta, around 2.25 million bags, with growing robusta investment
Rondônia	Conilon	Robusta and conilon, with quality improving

The reason this matters to a buyer is direct. An offer of "arabica from Espírito Santo" or "conilon from São Paulo" runs against how Brazil grows coffee, and it is a reason to check the origin against the certificate rather than take it as given.

Export data: CECAFÉ

CECAFÉ, the exporter council, reports what actually left the country. Its release on 15 July 2026 covered the 2025/26 season, July 2025 through June 2026.

Figure	Value
Total exports	38.462 million bags of 60 kg, down 15.7 percent on 2024/25
Arabica	29.499 million bags, 76.7 percent, down 15.3 percent
Conilon, robusta	5.031 million bags, 13.1 percent, down 23.5 percent
Soluble, instant	3.874 million bags, 10.1 percent
Revenue	US$14.595 billion, down 1 percent, the second-highest on record
Average price per bag	US$379.48, a record, up 17.4 percent

The destinations for the same season, out of 125 countries in total:

Rank	Market	Volume
1	Germany	5.188 million bags, 13.5 percent
2	United States	4.243 million bags, 11 percent
3	Italy	3.267 million bags
4	Belgium	2.330 million bags
5	Japan	2.300 million bags

One figure in that season needs a date attached rather than a trend read into it. CECAFÉ reported exports to the United States down 54.9 percent, driven by a 50 percent tariff in effect for roughly four months. That is an event of the 2025/26 season, not a permanent feature of the market, and it should be read as a dated episode, not extrapolated forward.

Production data: CONAB and USDA, kept separate

Production is where the sources diverge, and the right move is to report each with its own basis rather than to average them. CONAB and USDA count different periods with different methods, and their headline numbers are not directly comparable.

CONAB, in its first survey of the 2026 season, put production at 66.2 million bags of 60 kg, up 17.1 percent and a record, with arabica at 44.1 million and conilon at 22.1 million, and productivity at 34.2 bags per hectare. Those figures were read through the state news agency Agência Brasil, because the direct CONAB pages returned a restricted-content screen, so they are confirmed by a secondary government relay rather than read off the primary site, and they are the first forecast of the season. A later CONAB survey was reported at 66.7 million bags, up 18 percent, but the species breakdown for that later revision was not confirmed, so it is noted here as a later revision and not given as a split figure.

USDA reports on a different frame, the July-to-June marketing year.

USDA figure	Value
Production MY2026/27	71.9 million bags total: arabica 47.5, robusta and conilon 24.4, a 66 to 34 percent split
Export forecast MY2026/27	49 million bags: green 45, soluble 4
Production MY2025/26	65 million bags total: arabica 40.9, robusta 24.1

The gap between CONAB's 66.2 million for the 2026 season and USDA's 71.9 million for MY2026/27 is not a contradiction to be split down the middle. CONAB counts a calendar season and USDA a July-to-June marketing year, on different methods, so the two measure different quantities. Each figure is worth quoting with its source, its year and its basis. A single "Brazil produces X" number that blends them is worth less than either.

What this means for a buyer

The seasonality facts feed two practical checks. A lot claiming to be current crop can be tested against the harvest window and the coffee year, and a crop year that does not fit the calendar is a flag. And the volume figures set the context for an offer: a season CECAFÉ reported down 15.7 percent in export volume but at record prices is a different negotiating background from a glut. Read the offer against the dated figure, not against a vague sense of a big harvest.

Where this fits

The grade an offer claims, and how to read the type, cup and screen, is on Brazilian coffee grading. Checking the exporter and matching the crop year and origin to the documents is on verifying a coffee exporter. The physical sampling that tests a lot at loading is pre-shipment inspection, the company-level check for any Brazilian seller is verifying a Brazilian exporter, and the wider index is the Sourcing from Brazil hub.

Sources

• Coffee marketing year July to June, arabica harvest from around May and conilon from around April both finishing by about September, the biennial cycle with MY2026/27 as a record "on" year, the arabica and robusta production shares of 66 and 34 percent, the MY2026/27 production of 71.9 million bags (arabica 47.5, robusta and conilon 24.4) and export forecast of 49 million bags, the MY2025/26 production of 65 million bags, and the regional species map: USDA FAS GAIN, Coffee Annual Brazil, reports BR2026-0025 (1 June 2026) and BR2025-0013 (19 May 2025), primary. Regional volumes are USDA forecasts for MY2025/26, not final results.
• Exports of 38.462 million bags for 2025/26 with arabica 76.7 percent, conilon 13.1 percent and soluble 10.1 percent, revenue of US$14.595 billion, average price of US$379.48 per bag, the top markets Germany, United States, Italy, Belgium and Japan across 125 countries, and the United States down 54.9 percent under a 50 percent tariff: CECAFÉ, release of 15 July 2026 for the season July 2025 to June 2026, cecafe.com.br, primary. The United States tariff effect is a dated episode of that season, not a permanent market feature.
• CONAB first survey of the 2026 season at 66.2 million bags (arabica 44.1, conilon 22.1, productivity 34.2 bags per hectare): CONAB, published 5 February 2026, read through the government news agency Agência Brasil because the direct CONAB pages returned restricted content. Confirmed by secondary government relay, first forecast of the season. A later CONAB revision at 66.7 million bags is noted without a species breakdown, which was not confirmed.
• CONAB and USDA figures are not averaged, because they count different periods on different methods and are not directly comparable.

Facts checked 8 September 2026. CONAB and USDA revise their estimates each cycle, and harvest timing shifts with the weather. Confirm any figure against the current CECAFÉ, CONAB or USDA report before relying on it.